Where Tennessee Is Actually Selling
Days on market, inventory, and absorption for 31 Tennessee counties — so you know where the exit is before you buy the house.
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Twenty-three Tennessee counties got slower this year. Eight got faster — and the three biggest gains all ring Knoxville.
We lend on Tennessee investment property, which means we watch the exit as closely as our borrowers do. A loan is only as good as the sale that pays it off — so every month we pull the county numbers and look at what is actually moving.
Tennessee is broadly slowing, and slowing a little harder than last month. Inventory rose in 26 of the 31 counties we track, absorption fell in 26, and days on market got longer in 23. That is the backdrop.
Last month we called the exceptions an East Tennessee story. On the August data, that is no longer true — and we would rather say so than keep the headline. Across the 17 East Tennessee counties we track, days on market rose an average of 4.0 — against 4.5 for the rest of the state. That is not a regional advantage; it is a rounding error. The Tri-Cities in particular have turned: Morristown added 16 days, Kingsport 6.
What does survive is narrower and more useful. The three largest speed gains in Tennessee are all Knoxville-ring counties — Blount at 8 days faster, Roane at 7, Loudon at 6 (Roane is thin, so treat its swing with care) — and Knox County still has the best absorption in the state at a 0.56 pending ratio. The Knoxville ring is outperforming. East Tennessee, as a region, is not. Meanwhile Davidson County's absorption is now weaker than every county in Tennessee except Sevier, and Chattanooga and Cleveland are among the fastest-deteriorating markets we track.
None of this makes a bad deal good or a good deal bad. It changes how long you should underwrite the hold, and how much cushion the exit needs.
A falling list price is not a falling value
The most misread number in every market report — including, until recently, ours.
Median listing price moves when the mix of what is for sale changes, not only when values change. List a run of cheaper houses and the median falls even if every house in the county is worth more than it was last year.
So we pulled a second price series: the FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index, which is built from repeat sales of the same properties — actual closings, not asking prices. Where the two disagree, the transaction index is the one describing value.
They disagree a lot.
| County | Median list priceAug 2026 vs Aug 2025 | Transaction index2025 vs 2024 | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roane Kingston | −6.6% | +7.8% | 14 pts |
| Shelby Memphis | −14.4% | −0.1% | 14 pts |
| Sevier Sevierville | −7.7% | +4.8% | 12 pts |
| Cumberland Crossville | −5.7% | +6.0% | 12 pts |
| Jefferson Dandridge | +11.8% | +4.0% | 8 pts |
| Coffee Tullahoma | −3.3% | +3.5% | 7 pts |
| Putnam Cookeville | −3.6% | +2.9% | 6 pts |
| Williamson Franklin | −3.3% | +2.8% | 6 pts |
| Loudon Lenoir City | +6.3% | +1.6% | 5 pts |
| Maury Columbia | +8.6% | +4.2% | 4 pts |
Roane County is the starkest case this month. Its median asking price fell 6.6% while its transaction index rose 7.8% — a 14-point gap pointing in opposite directions. But Roane is a thin market, and Memphis is effectively tied with it on a base seventeen times larger: asking prices down 14.4%, transaction index at −0.1%. Houses in Shelby County did not lose a seventh of their value — cheaper houses got listed. Anyone underwriting a Memphis ARV off that asking-price drop is leaving money on the table; anyone doing the same in Crossville or Sevierville is making the same mistake in the same direction.
One honest caveat: the transaction index is annual and runs through 2025, so it does not yet cover the most recent eight months. It is slower than listing data. It is also the only series here built from things that actually sold.
The five markets moving best
Ranked on how fast houses sell, whether that is improving, and whether there is enough volume to find a deal. Counties under 250 active listings are excluded.
Loudon County — Lenoir City
The only county in Tennessee where all three signals moved the right way at once. Days on market fell 6 to 61, inventory fell 18.1% — the largest drawdown in the state — and the pending ratio rose 9 points to 0.53, the only meaningful absorption gain anywhere in Tennessee this month. Permits are up 23% since 2022 and asking prices up 6.3%. Two cautions: at a $680,000 median asking price and 8.0× median household income this is not a starter-home market, and 317 active listings is a narrow field to source from.
Knox County — Knoxville
The strongest absorption in the state, at scale: a 0.56 pending ratio on 1,872 active listings, higher than any other Tennessee county. Price per square foot is up 2.2% to $233, the transaction index up 2.9%, and building permits have doubled since 2022 — 2,503 to 5,013 — the only large county where construction is expanding rather than retreating. The honest caution: absorption fell 11 points from last year's 0.67 and days on market added 3. Knoxville is still the best large market in Tennessee. It is not as far ahead as it was.
Wilson County — Mt. Juliet
The fastest exit in Tennessee at 50 days, a day quicker than a year ago, with a 0.53 pending ratio and 946 listings to work with. Asking prices are up 1.9%. The caution is where the supply is coming from: inventory is up 19.3% while permits have fallen 16% since 2022, so the new listings are resale rather than construction. A good market to move through quickly, not one to sit in.
Robertson County — Springfield
The quiet one. 56 days, a 0.51 pending ratio — fourth-best in the state — and 408 active listings, with asking prices up 5.4% and price per square foot unchanged. Permits are within 1% of their 2022 level, which in a state where most counties have cut construction by a quarter or more counts as stability. At 5.4× median household income, the buyer pool underneath your exit is a real one.
Washington County — Johnson City
One of only four Tennessee counties where inventory actually fell — down 6.4% — with days on market improving 2 to 58 and price per square foot up 2.4%. Its transaction index is up 3.6%, among the strongest in the state. It is also one of only two Tri-Cities markets still moving the right way — Greeneville is the other — while Kingsport and Morristown slow sharply. Caution: absorption still fell 10 points to 0.49, and permits are off 15% since 2022.
The five hardest exits
Slow sales, supply arriving faster than buyers, or construction pulling back. None of these are unlendable — they are markets where the numbers have to work harder.
Sevier County — Sevierville
The slowest exit in Tennessee by a wide margin: 96 days on market and a 0.18 pending ratio, the worst in the state on both counts and slower again than a year ago. Its asking price is down 7.7%, but note the transaction index is up 4.8% — a listing-mix effect, not falling values. The real problem is structural: at 9.5× median household income it is the least affordable county in Tennessee, because it is a vacation and short-term-rental market rather than an owner-occupant one. Your buyer pool is discretionary, and discretionary buyers wait.
Cumberland County — Crossville
Second slowest at 85 days, up 8 year over year, on a 0.28 pending ratio and inventory up 10.8%. Asking prices are down 5.7% while the transaction index is up 6.0% — one of the widest list-versus-value gaps in the state, so do not read the asking-price drop as a value drop. Crossville is a retirement market, which means the same discretionary-demand problem as Sevierville: buyers who can wait, and do.
Shelby County — Memphis
Read this one carefully, because the headline number misleads. Memphis's median asking price is down 14.4% — but the transaction-based index is essentially flat at −0.1%. Values did not fall by a seventh; the mix of what is listed got cheaper. The real problems are the exit and the trend: 71 days on market, up 10 year over year, a 0.30 pending ratio, price per square foot down 5.3%, and permits down 34% since 2022. At $143 per square foot it is the cheapest entry in Tennessee and, for a patient operator, that is an opportunity — but do not underwrite it as a fast flip.
Davidson County — Nashville
Nashville is still the most liquid market in Tennessee in absolute terms — 4,599 active listings, more than any other county. But its 0.27 pending ratio is lower than every county in Tennessee except Sevier, days on market added 2 to 67, price per square foot slipped 2.3%, and the forward signal is the worst in the state: building permits are down 63% from 2022, 15,163 to 5,632. That is the sharpest construction pullback anywhere in Tennessee. The transaction index is up 2.0%, so values are holding — it is the speed of the exit that has changed.
Bradley County — Cleveland
Inventory is up 41.1% year over year — the fastest supply build in Tennessee for the second month running — while days on market added 15 to 64 and the pending ratio fell 10 points to 0.38. The asking price is exactly flat against a year ago, which is what makes this one dangerous: the price signal has not caught up to the supply signal yet. Neighbouring McMinn is worse on trend still — 16 more days and a 17-point absorption collapse, the steepest in the state — on a thinner listing base.
All 31 counties
Sorted by median days on market, fastest first. Every county is on the same month and the same data vintage, so they compare directly against one another.
Listing data as of August 2026 · updated monthly
| County | Days on market | vs. last year | Active listings | vs. last year | Price / sq ft | vs. last year | Median list price | vs. last year | Pending ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilson Mt. Juliet | 50 | −1 | 946 | +19.3% | $232 | −2.1% | $569,900 | +1.9% | 53.3% |
| Roane Kingstonthin | 52 | −7 | 224 | 0 | $202 | −6.9% | $420,000 | −6.6% | 45.5% |
| Anderson Oak Ridgethin | 54 | +4 | 236 | +14.0% | $217 | +2.4% | $389,900 | +3.3% | 49.1% |
| Blount Maryville | 55 | −8 | 544 | +8.6% | $252 | +5.0% | $499,000 | +4.3% | 44.9% |
| Rutherford Murfreesboro | 55 | +2 | 1,505 | +4.5% | $221 | −1.8% | $480,150 | +1.1% | 46.2% |
| Robertson Springfield | 56 | +2 | 408 | +10.6% | $226 | 0 | $436,990 | +5.4% | 51.2% |
| Dickson | 57 | +12 | 313 | +19.0% | $251 | +3.7% | $428,400 | +4.5% | 31.3% |
| Knox Knoxville | 57 | +3 | 1,872 | +11.6% | $233 | +2.2% | $429,000 | +0.9% | 56.0% |
| Maury Columbia | 57 | −2 | 798 | +21.6% | $230 | −1.3% | $499,000 | +8.6% | 45.6% |
| Sullivan Kingsport | 57 | +6 | 554 | +2.6% | $181 | +2.3% | $349,900 | +4.2% | 49.5% |
| Sumner Gallatin | 57 | +9 | 1,233 | +16.0% | $231 | −0.9% | $488,035 | −0.4% | 41.9% |
| Hawkins Rogersvillethin | 58 | +1 | 195 | +19.6% | $196 | 0 | $348,500 | −0.4% | 35.4% |
| Washington Johnson City | 58 | −2 | 407 | −6.4% | $211 | +2.4% | $447,000 | +1.5% | 48.6% |
| Williamson Franklin | 59 | −2 | 1,700 | +17.6% | $350 | −0.3% | $1,136,328 | −3.3% | 49.2% |
| Montgomery Clarksville | 60 | +1 | 1,676 | +6.3% | $191 | −0.5% | $349,945 | +0.3% | 34.8% |
| Carter Elizabethtonthin | 61 | +2 | 179 | +9.8% | $206 | +0.5% | $375,000 | +7.2% | 44.7% |
| Loudon Lenoir City | 61 | −6 | 317 | −18.1% | $260 | +0.4% | $680,000 | +6.3% | 53.0% |
| Greene Greeneville | 63 | −1 | 253 | +1.2% | $202 | −0.5% | $374,000 | +6.9% | 35.6% |
| Bradley Cleveland | 64 | +15 | 608 | +41.1% | $206 | +2.5% | $379,000 | 0 | 38.5% |
| Hamilton Chattanooga | 64 | +11 | 2,060 | +23.3% | $216 | −1.8% | $420,000 | −2.3% | 36.4% |
| Madison Jackson | 65 | +1 | 403 | +16.1% | $162 | −0.6% | $310,000 | −3.1% | 29.0% |
| Coffee Tullahoma | 66 | +7 | 283 | −6.6% | $207 | +3.0% | $349,999 | −3.3% | 30.4% |
| Putnam Cookeville | 66 | +7 | 408 | +12.4% | $202 | −1.5% | $385,000 | −3.6% | 35.5% |
| Davidson Nashville | 67 | +2 | 4,599 | +10.5% | $302 | −2.3% | $533,117 | −3.1% | 26.6% |
| Hamblen Morristownthin | 67 | +16 | 191 | −3.5% | $204 | +0.5% | $379,900 | −0.3% | 45.0% |
| McMinn Athens | 71 | +16 | 259 | +34.2% | $196 | +9.5% | $349,950 | +6.9% | 35.5% |
| Shelby Memphis | 71 | +10 | 3,785 | +11.8% | $143 | −5.3% | $249,900 | −14.4% | 29.6% |
| Jefferson Dandridge | 72 | +5 | 301 | +3.8% | $266 | +6.8% | $580,000 | +11.8% | 30.6% |
| Tipton Covingtonthin | 74 | +15 | 212 | +39.5% | $174 | +4.8% | $329,950 | 0 | 31.1% |
| Cumberland Crossville | 85 | +8 | 614 | +10.8% | $214 | −1.4% | $396,000 | −5.7% | 27.9% |
| Sevier Sevierville | 96 | +5 | 2,164 | +4.4% | $350 | −4.9% | $599,900 | −7.7% | 18.2% |
Scroll the table sideways to see every column →
Green is the direction that helps a flip — faster sales, less competing inventory, firmer prices. Red is the direction that hurts one. Rising inventory shows red because more listings means more competition on your exit, even though it also means more to buy. Price per square foot is the more reliable of the two price columns — it is far less sensitive to which houses happen to be listed.
Who is still building
Listing data tells you the present. The transaction index tells you the past. Permits are the closest thing to a look forward — where builders are still putting capital, and where they have stopped.
| County | Permits 2025 | Permits 2022 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Davidson Nashville | 5,632 | 15,163 | −63% |
| Knox Knoxville | 5,013 | 2,503 | +100% |
| Rutherford Murfreesboro | 3,169 | 2,456 | +29% |
| Sumner Gallatin | 3,045 | 1,968 | +55% |
| Montgomery Clarksville | 2,723 | 4,005 | −32% |
| Wilson Mt. Juliet | 1,982 | 2,349 | −16% |
| Hamilton Chattanooga | 1,887 | 2,344 | −19% |
| Williamson Franklin | 1,621 | 2,254 | −28% |
| Maury Columbia | 1,408 | 1,863 | −24% |
| Shelby Memphis | 1,230 | 1,870 | −34% |
| Sevier Sevierville | 1,139 | 1,494 | −24% |
| Loudon Lenoir City | 869 | 704 | +23% |
Knoxville doubled. Nashville fell by nearly two thirds. Davidson County authorized 15,163 new structures in 2022 and 5,632 in 2025 — the sharpest pullback in Tennessee, and a large part of why its absorption now trails every county but Sevier. Knox went from 2,503 to 5,013. Builders are not confused about where the demand went. We read rising permits as green because they are a forward bet by people with capital at risk — construction expands where builders expect to sell. The competing reading is that new supply competes with your exit, and on a single-family flip in a specific neighborhood that can be true. These counts are all structure types including multifamily, so treat them as a confidence signal rather than a direct comp. Cumberland and McMinn are omitted — we re-checked both this month and both still show reporting breaks rather than real changes.
One thing we tested that did not work
We pulled the share of listings with a price cut for all 31 counties, expecting it to be the leading indicator — the number that moves before days on market does. It isn't, at least not in Tennessee.
Across the 31 counties, price-cut share correlates with days on market at −0.24. That is weak, and it is the wrong sign: if anything, the faster markets show slightly more price cuts. Knox County has the best absorption in the state and 51% of its listings have cut price. Davidson's absorption trails every county but Sevier, and only 37% have.
We re-run this test every month rather than quoting the old figure. It was −0.22 in July and −0.24 in August — weak and wrong-signed both times. We left it out of the table rather than dress it up as a signal. If a market report shows you a number, it should be a number that changes a decision.
How to read this — and what it is not
- Median list price is an asking price, not a value and not an ARV. It is mix-sensitive. Use price per square foot for a firmer read on price level, and the transaction index above for a read on whether values are actually moving.
- Pending ratio is Realtor.com's published pending-to-active figure, a stock-to-stock ratio. Higher means listings are converting to contracts faster. Months of supply is not published for these counties, so it is not on the page — we would rather show a labeled ratio than an unlabeled guess.
- The transaction price index is annual, through 2025. It is the FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index, repeat-sales, developmental at county level. It does not cover the most recent eight months, and it is slower to turn than listing data. It is also the only series here built from closings.
- Building permits are annual, through 2025, and count structures rather than units. Cumberland and McMinn are excluded from the permit table: both show single-year collapses with no counterpart in any other series, which is the signature of a reporting break rather than a construction change. We re-check this every month.
- “Thin” marks counties under 250 active listings. A median computed on 180 houses can swing several days on ordinary noise. They are in the table for completeness, kept out of the rankings.
- Nine Tennessee counties are missing because no comparable series is published — Bedford, Cheatham, Fayette, Franklin, Lawrence, Marion, Monroe, Rhea, and Warren. We left them out rather than substitute a different source and break the comparison.
- All listing comparisons are August 2026 against August 2025, which controls for seasonality. None of these series are seasonally adjusted, so do not compare rows across different months.
- Income multiples use Census SAIPE median household income, annual through 2024, against the current median asking price. They are a rough affordability check on the buyer pool underneath your exit, not a valuation.
- Sevier and Cumberland are structurally different markets — vacation/short-term-rental and retirement respectively. Their numbers reflect discretionary demand, not owner-occupant resale.
- Williamson County's healthy numbers sit on a $1.14M median list price, 7.7× median household income. Different capital, carry, and buyer pool than a $300–500k flip.
- “Davidson” is the Nashville urban core, not the metro. Rutherford, Sumner, Wilson, Williamson, Maury, Robertson, and Dickson are separate rows — which is correct if you are deciding where to buy.
- Sources: Realtor.com Housing Inventory Core Metrics (FRED release 462), the FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index, Census building permit data, and Census SAIPE income estimates, all via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Realtor.com reflects listings on its platform rather than all MLS activity. Nothing here is estimated.
We lend statewide, not just where the data looks good. This table is here to help you pick the deal. If you have one under contract anywhere in Tennessee — fast county or slow one — send it over and we will underwrite it on the property, not the zip code.
Tennessee market FAQ
Which Tennessee counties are selling the fastest right now?
As of August 2026, Wilson County (Mt. Juliet) has the lowest median days on market in Tennessee at 50, followed by Blount (Maryville) and Rutherford (Murfreesboro) at 55 and Robertson (Springfield) at 56. Roane (52) and Anderson (54) are quicker still but sit under 250 active listings, so we flag them as thin and keep them out of the rankings. Speed is only half the picture — Knox County (Knoxville) has the strongest absorption in the state, with a pending ratio of 0.56.
Is the Nashville market slowing down?
Davidson County has weaker absorption than every county in Tennessee except Sevier. Its pending ratio is 0.27 as of August 2026, against 0.56 in Knox and 0.46 in Rutherford. Median days on market rose 2 year over year to 67. Nashville is still liquid in absolute terms — 4,599 active listings, the most in the state — but each individual listing turns over more slowly than in most of Tennessee. Building permits tell the same story: Davidson authorized 15,163 in 2022 and 5,632 in 2025, a 63% decline and the sharpest construction pullback in the state.
Does a falling median listing price mean home values are falling?
No, and this is the single most misread number in every market report. Median listing price moves when the mix of what is for sale changes, not only when values change. Roane County is the starkest case this month: its median listing price is down 6.6% year over year while the FHFA House Price Index — built from actual repeat sales rather than listings — shows Roane up 7.8%. Shelby County is effectively tied on the gap and matters more at scale: asking prices down 14.4% against a transaction index of −0.1%. Cheaper houses are being listed. The houses themselves did not lose that value. Sevier and Cumberland show the same pattern.
What is the best market in Tennessee for a fix and flip right now?
On the August 2026 data, Loudon County (Lenoir City) has the best combination in the state: 61 median days on market and improving by 6, inventory down 18.1% — the largest drawdown in Tennessee — and the only meaningful absorption gain anywhere, with the pending ratio up 9 points to 0.53. It is the one county where speed, supply and absorption all moved the right way at once. Knox County offers regional strength at far larger scale, with the state's best absorption at 0.56 and building permits that have doubled since 2022. Wilson County is the fastest outright at 50 days. Blount County posted the largest speed gain in Tennessee, 8 days, but its pending ratio slipped to 0.45 and it misses our absorption screen.
Which Tennessee markets have the slowest exits?
Sevier County (Sevierville) is slowest at 96 median days on market with a pending ratio of 0.18, the weakest in the state on both counts. Cumberland (Crossville) is next at 85 days and a 0.28 ratio. Tipton (Covington) is 74 days but thin. Jefferson (Dandridge) is 72, and McMinn (Athens) and Shelby (Memphis) are both 71. Note that slow does not automatically mean values are falling — in most of these counties the transaction-based price index is up, Shelby being the one exception at −0.1%.
Does the share of listings with a price cut predict a slow market?
We tested it across all 31 counties and it does not. The correlation between price-cut share and median days on market is −0.24, which is both weak and the opposite sign from what the conventional wisdom expects — if anything, faster markets show slightly more price cuts. Knox County has the state's best absorption and 51% of its listings have cut price; Davidson has weaker absorption than every county but Sevier and only 37% have. We pulled the data expecting it to be a leading indicator, found it wasn't, and left it out of the table rather than present it as a signal. We re-run this test every month; it has now come back weak and wrong-signed twice.
Where does this data come from?
Two sources. Listing metrics — days on market, active listing count, pending ratio, median listing price, and price per square foot — come from Realtor.com Housing Inventory Core Metrics via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, all August 2026 on an identical vintage. The transaction-based price index is the FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index, also via FRED, annual through 2025. Building permits are Census data via FRED, annual through 2025. Median household income is Census SAIPE, annual through 2024. Nothing is estimated; the nine Tennessee counties with no published series are named as unavailable rather than filled in.
Does Scale Private Capital lend in all of these counties?
We lend across Tennessee on business-purpose real estate — fix and flip, land, new construction, and manufactured housing. We are not limited to the counties in this table. The table exists to help you decide where to buy and how long to underwrite the hold. If you have a property under contract anywhere in Tennessee, call us and we will underwrite it on the deal, not the county.
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