Where Tennessee Is Actually Selling
Days on market, inventory, and absorption for 31 Tennessee counties — so you know where the exit is before you buy the house.
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Jefferson County's inventory just jumped 11% in a month, and its buyer pool shrank the fastest in Tennessee — hidden behind a days-on-market number that actually improved.
We lend on Tennessee investment property, which means we watch the exit as closely as our borrowers do. A loan is only as good as the sale that pays it off — so every month we pull the county numbers and look at what is actually moving.
Tennessee is still broadly slowing: inventory rose in 27 of the 31 counties we track, absorption fell in 23, and days on market got longer in 21. But the picture is less uniform than last month. Nine counties sold faster than a year ago, against eight in August, and one — Sevier — was exactly flat.
The three largest speed gains in the state are Roane (11 days faster year over year), Loudon (10) and Hawkins (8). Roane and Hawkins are both thin markets, so treat their swings with care, but Loudon's improvement sits on a real 328-listing base.
The more useful story is which counties improved on both speed and demand at once — most didn't. Five counties sold faster year over year while their pending ratio fell at the same time: Jefferson, Rutherford, Washington, Maury and Blount. Jefferson is the sharpest case — days on market improved 4 to 70, but its pending ratio fell 15.4 points year over year, the largest absorption decline of any county in Tennessee, on the back of an 11% one-month inventory spike. Robertson's own story is simpler and still worth flagging: it is the fastest-selling county in the state this month at 51 days, but its own pending ratio fell 12 points year over year, the third-largest decline in the state, even though its days on market are up 6 from a year ago. Loudon, Coffee, Roane and Hawkins are the genuine exceptions — the only four counties where days improved and absorption improved together. Roane and Hawkins are thin markets, so treat their swings with care; Loudon and Coffee sit on real volume.
One ranking changed that's worth knowing on its own: Davidson County is no longer the second-weakest absorption market in Tennessee. Jefferson and Cumberland have both slipped below it. Nashville is still the most liquid market in the state by volume, and still weak on absorption — just not uniquely so anymore.
None of this makes a bad deal good or a good deal bad. It changes how long you should underwrite the hold, and how much cushion the exit needs.
A falling list price is not a falling value
The most misread number in every market report — including, until recently, ours.
Median listing price moves when the mix of what is for sale changes, not only when values change. List a run of cheaper houses and the median falls even if every house in the county is worth more than it was last year.
So we pulled a second price series: the FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index, which is built from repeat sales of the same properties — actual closings, not asking prices. Where the two disagree, the transaction index is the one describing value. This index is annual and unchanged since the August report; what moved this month is the asking-price side of the gap.
They still disagree a lot.
| County | Median list priceSep 2026 vs Sep 2025 | Transaction index2025 vs 2024 | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelby Memphis | -12.6% | -0.1% | 13 pts |
| Sevier Sevierville | -8.0% | +4.8% | 13 pts |
| Roane Kingston | -3.9% | +7.8% | 12 pts |
| Cumberland Crossville | -4.3% | +6.0% | 10 pts |
| Jefferson Dandridge | +11.2% | +4.0% | 7 pts |
| Coffee Tullahoma | -2.8% | +3.5% | 6 pts |
| Loudon Lenoir City | +7.9% | +1.6% | 6 pts |
| Putnam Cookeville | -2.0% | +2.9% | 5 pts |
| Maury Columbia | +7.5% | +4.2% | 3 pts |
| Williamson Franklin | +0.9% | +2.8% | 2 pts |
Shelby and Sevier are tied for the widest gap this month, and Shelby matters most because it is the largest base. Asking prices in Memphis are down 12.6% year over year while the transaction index is essentially flat at -0.1% — cheaper houses are being listed, not falling values. Jefferson is the mirror image: asking prices up 11.2%, a gap that has now persisted two months running, likely a mix effect toward pricier listings rather than a real 11% jump in value. Anyone underwriting an ARV off either county's raw asking-price trend is reading the wrong number.
One honest caveat: the transaction index is annual and runs through 2025, so it does not yet cover the most recent nine months. It is slower than listing data. It is also the only series here built from things that actually sold.
The five markets moving best
Ranked on how fast houses sell, whether that is improving, whether absorption is improving alongside it, and whether there is enough volume to find a deal. Counties under 250 active listings are excluded.
Loudon County — Lenoir City
The one county where speed and demand improved together, and by the widest margin in the state. Days on market fell 10 to 63 year over year, and the pending ratio rose 7.9 points to 0.47 — one of only two counties where both moved the right way at once. Asking prices are up 7.9% and permits remain up 23% since 2022. Two cautions: at a $695,975 median asking price this is not a starter-home market, and 328 active listings is a narrow field to source from.
Knox County — Knoxville
Still the best large-market absorption in Tennessee, at real scale: a 0.54 pending ratio on 1,924 active listings, no comparable-volume county is close. Down from last year's 0.58, and days added 1 to 59 — cooling from an exceptional level, not collapsing. Price per square foot is up 1.3% to $232. The deepest, most liquid buyer pool in the state remains here.
Coffee County — Tullahoma
The only other county improving on both measures at once: days on market fell 3 to 64 year over year, and the pending ratio rose 1.6 points. Thin at 294 listings and still one of the slower counties in absolute terms, but the trend line is the cleanest in the state outside Loudon.
Blount County — Maryville
Days improved 4 to 60 year over year on 554 listings, with absorption essentially flat (down a mild 2.2 points). Price per square foot is up 3.7%. Not as dramatic a mover as Loudon or Coffee, but a steady, real-volume county with no deterioration to flag.
Maury County — Columbia
58 days, improving 1 year over year, on 760 listings with only a mild 2.5-point absorption decline — one of the more stable mid-sized counties this month. Price per square foot is down a modest 1.7%, in line with several of its Middle Tennessee neighbors. The caution: Rutherford and Robertson both look faster on the headline number, but both are giving up far more on absorption, which is why Maury ranks ahead of them here.
The five hardest exits
Slow sales, supply arriving faster than buyers, or a one-month deterioration sharp enough to flag now. None of these are unlendable — they are markets where the numbers have to work harder.
Sevier County — Sevierville
The slowest exit in Tennessee by a wide margin: 95 days on market and a 0.20 pending ratio, the worst in the state on both counts, essentially unchanged from a year ago. Its asking price is down 8.0%, but the transaction index is up 4.8% — a listing-mix effect, not falling values. The structural problem hasn't moved: a vacation and short-term-rental buyer pool that is discretionary, and discretionary buyers wait.
Jefferson County — Dandridge
The "numbers lie" case this month. Days on market actually improved — down 4 to 70 year over year — which reads as good news. But active listings grew 11.0% in a single month, the fastest supply build in the state, while the pending ratio fell 15.4 points year over year to 0.25, the largest absorption decline in Tennessee. A seller's market quietly tipping toward a buyer's market, hidden behind one improving number. Underwrite the exit on the pending ratio here, not the headline days figure.
Cumberland County — Crossville
87 days, up 2 since August, with a 0.25 pending ratio and inventory up 10.0% year over year. Asking prices are down 4.3% while the transaction index is up 6.0% — another wide list-versus-value gap, so do not read the asking-price drop as a value drop. A retirement market with the same discretionary-demand problem as Sevierville: buyers who can wait, and do.
Davidson County — Nashville
Nashville is still the most liquid market in Tennessee in absolute terms — 4,621 active listings, more than any other county. Its 0.26 pending ratio is no longer the second-worst in the state — Jefferson and Cumberland have both slipped below it — but it is still weak, days on market added 2 to 68, and the forward signal remains the worst in the state: building permits are down 63% from 2022, unchanged since the August report. Values are holding (transaction index +2.0%); it is the speed and depth of the exit that stay the concern.
McMinn County — Athens
The sharpest one-month deterioration anywhere in Tennessee: days on market jumped from 71 to 79 since August, and it is 25 days slower than a year ago. On a thin 251-listing base, which makes the swing larger than it would be at scale, but it is the newest and largest warning sign in this month's data. Avoid unless the deal has an unusually wide margin.
All 31 counties
Sorted by median days on market, fastest first. Every county is on the same month and the same data vintage, so they compare directly against one another.
Listing data as of September 2026 · updated monthly
| County | Days on market | vs. last year | Active listings | vs. last year | Price / sq ft | vs. last year | Median list price | vs. last year | Pending ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robertson Springfield | 51 | +6 | 400 | +9.0% | $223 | -1.3% | $435,820 | +8.3% | 42.5% |
| Anderson Oak Ridgethin | 53 | +1 | 245 | +7.9% | $223 | +2.8% | $399,475 | +6.5% | 47.3% |
| Wilson Mt. Juliet | 54 | +3 | 942 | +17.6% | $232 | -1.7% | $564,675 | +2.7% | 52.3% |
| Roane Kingstonthin | 54 | -11 | 233 | -0.9% | $207 | -3.3% | $415,500 | -3.9% | 48.5% |
| Rutherford Murfreesboro | 55 | -1 | 1,549 | +9.4% | $221 | -1.3% | $479,450 | +1.4% | 40.3% |
| Dickson | 57 | +4 | 317 | +26.3% | $251 | +5.0% | $420,000 | +0.1% | 30.0% |
| Hawkins Rogersvillethin | 58 | -8 | 207 | +20.3% | $197 | +4.2% | $349,950 | +3.8% | 34.3% |
| Maury Columbia | 58 | -1 | 760 | +9.7% | $229 | -1.7% | $493,850 | +7.5% | 45.4% |
| Knox Knoxville | 59 | +1 | 1,924 | +10.4% | $232 | +1.3% | $419,750 | -1.2% | 53.6% |
| Sullivan Kingsport | 59 | +1 | 570 | +2.7% | $177 | +1.1% | $347,003 | +2.8% | 47.9% |
| Blount Maryville | 60 | -4 | 554 | +5.1% | $253 | +3.7% | $499,800 | +4.8% | 46.6% |
| Sumner Gallatin | 60 | +11 | 1,195 | +9.5% | $230 | -1.7% | $479,948 | -2.1% | 43.5% |
| Washington Johnson City | 61 | -3 | 430 | -6.1% | $208 | 0.0% | $441,950 | +1.1% | 47.7% |
| Hamblen Morristownthin | 61 | +4 | 185 | -7.0% | $203 | 0.0% | $378,700 | -5.3% | 44.9% |
| Williamson Franklin | 63 | +4 | 1,677 | +14.8% | $358 | +2.9% | $1,155,000 | +0.9% | 49.4% |
| Loudon Lenoir City | 63 | -10 | 328 | -14.8% | $260 | -1.5% | $695,975 | +7.9% | 46.6% |
| Coffee Tullahoma | 64 | -3 | 294 | +0.3% | $210 | +4.0% | $359,900 | -2.8% | 34.0% |
| Putnam Cookeville | 65 | +6 | 420 | +17.3% | $203 | -1.0% | $389,000 | -2.0% | 32.4% |
| Hamilton Chattanooga | 66 | +9 | 2,092 | +21.2% | $216 | -1.4% | $416,825 | -2.2% | 35.1% |
| Montgomery Clarksville | 67 | +8 | 1,673 | +4.3% | $190 | -1.6% | $349,999 | +0.2% | 33.5% |
| Bradley Cleveland | 67 | +15 | 586 | +25.2% | $208 | +4.0% | $378,250 | +1.5% | 34.8% |
| Davidson Nashville | 68 | +2 | 4,621 | +11.0% | $301 | -2.6% | $525,000 | -4.5% | 25.5% |
| Madison Jackson | 69 | +10 | 404 | +7.7% | $161 | -0.6% | $302,500 | -5.4% | 26.7% |
| Carter Elizabethtonthin | 69 | +3 | 185 | +10.1% | $212 | +1.9% | $364,650 | +0.6% | 43.2% |
| Greene Greeneville | 70 | +5 | 267 | +2.7% | $198 | -2.5% | $369,925 | +5.7% | 35.2% |
| Jefferson Dandridge | 70 | -4 | 334 | +23.2% | $260 | +2.8% | $579,725 | +11.2% | 25.1% |
| Shelby Memphis | 72 | +6 | 3,725 | +8.9% | $143 | -4.0% | $247,775 | -12.6% | 28.6% |
| Tipton Covingtonthin | 73 | +17 | 207 | +31.0% | $174 | +4.8% | $334,908 | -3.6% | 35.3% |
| McMinn Athens | 79 | +25 | 251 | +16.7% | $194 | +6.0% | $349,950 | +7.7% | 37.5% |
| Cumberland Crossville | 87 | +5 | 614 | +10.0% | $216 | -0.9% | $399,000 | -4.3% | 25.2% |
| Sevier Sevierville | 95 | 0 | 2,180 | +8.9% | $348 | -3.3% | $589,500 | -8.0% | 19.5% |
Scroll the table sideways to see every column →
Green is the direction that helps a flip — faster sales, less competing inventory, firmer prices. Red is the direction that hurts one. Rising inventory shows red because more listings means more competition on your exit, even though it also means more to buy. Price per square foot is the more reliable of the two price columns — it is far less sensitive to which houses happen to be listed.
Who is still building
Listing data tells you the present. The transaction index tells you the past. Permits are the closest thing to a look forward — where builders are still putting capital, and where they have stopped. Annual Census data, unchanged since the August report.
| County | Permits 2025 | Permits 2022 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Davidson Nashville | 5,632 | 15,163 | -63% |
| Knox Knoxville | 5,013 | 2,503 | +100% |
| Rutherford Murfreesboro | 3,169 | 2,456 | +29% |
| Sumner Gallatin | 3,045 | 1,968 | +55% |
| Montgomery Clarksville | 2,723 | 4,005 | -32% |
| Wilson Mt. Juliet | 1,982 | 2,349 | -16% |
| Hamilton Chattanooga | 1,887 | 2,344 | -19% |
| Williamson Franklin | 1,621 | 2,254 | -28% |
| Maury Columbia | 1,408 | 1,863 | -24% |
| Shelby Memphis | 1,230 | 1,870 | -34% |
| Sevier Sevierville | 1,139 | 1,494 | -24% |
| Loudon Lenoir City | 869 | 704 | +23% |
Knoxville doubled. Nashville fell by nearly two thirds. Davidson County authorized 15,163 new structures in 2022 and 5,632 in 2025 — the sharpest pullback in Tennessee. Knox went from 2,503 to 5,013. This table is unchanged from the August report — Census permit data updates annually, not monthly, and the next release isn't expected until next year. We read rising permits as green because they are a forward bet by people with capital at risk — construction expands where builders expect to sell. The competing reading is that new supply competes with your exit, and on a single-family flip in a specific neighborhood that can be true. Cumberland and McMinn remain omitted — both still show reporting breaks rather than real changes.
One thing we're not updating this month
Last month's report tested whether the share of listings with a price cut predicts a slow market (it didn't — a weak, wrong-signed correlation of -0.24 across all 31 counties). We don't have a fresh read on that series for September and would rather say so than publish a number we haven't actually re-pulled. It'll be back next month once we've re-run it on current data.
How to read this — and what it is not
- Median list price is an asking price, not a value and not an ARV. It is mix-sensitive. Use price per square foot for a firmer read on price level, and the transaction index above for a read on whether values are actually moving.
- Pending ratio is Realtor.com's published pending-to-active figure, a stock-to-stock ratio. Higher means listings are converting to contracts faster. Months of supply is not published for these counties, so it is not on the page — we would rather show a labeled ratio than an unlabeled guess.
- The transaction price index is annual, through 2025. It is the FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index, repeat-sales, developmental at county level. It does not cover the most recent nine months, and it is slower to turn than listing data. It is also the only series here built from closings.
- Building permits are annual, through 2025, and count structures rather than units. Cumberland and McMinn are excluded from the permit table: both show single-year collapses with no counterpart in any other series, which is the signature of a reporting break rather than a construction change. We re-check this every month.
- “Thin” marks counties under 250 active listings. A median computed on 180 houses can swing several days on ordinary noise. They are in the table for completeness, kept out of the rankings.
- Nine Tennessee counties are missing because no comparable series is published — Bedford, Cheatham, Fayette, Franklin, Lawrence, Marion, Monroe, Rhea, and Warren. We left them out rather than substitute a different source and break the comparison.
- All listing comparisons are September 2026 against September 2025, which controls for seasonality. None of these series are seasonally adjusted, so do not compare rows across different months.
- Income multiples are not shown this month. They require a fresh Census SAIPE median household income pull per county, which we have not re-run since the August report; we'd rather leave them out than publish a derived estimate under this methodology note. They'll return once re-sourced directly.
- Sevier and Cumberland are structurally different markets — vacation/short-term-rental and retirement respectively. Their numbers reflect discretionary demand, not owner-occupant resale.
- Williamson County's healthy numbers sit on a $1.155M median list price. Different capital, carry, and buyer pool than a $300–500k flip.
- “Davidson” is the Nashville urban core, not the metro. Rutherford, Sumner, Wilson, Williamson, Maury, Robertson, and Dickson are separate rows — which is correct if you are deciding where to buy.
- Sources: Realtor.com Housing Inventory Core Metrics (FRED release 462), the FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index, Census building permit data, and Census SAIPE income estimates, all via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Realtor.com reflects listings on its platform rather than all MLS activity. Nothing here is estimated.
We lend statewide, not just where the data looks good. This table is here to help you pick the deal. If you have one under contract anywhere in Tennessee — fast county or slow one — send it over and we will underwrite it on the property, not the zip code.
Tennessee market FAQ
Which Tennessee counties are selling the fastest right now?
As of September 2026, Robertson County (Springfield) has the lowest median days on market in Tennessee at 51, followed by Wilson (Mt. Juliet) at 54 and Rutherford (Murfreesboro) at 55. Roane (54) is quicker still but sits under 250 active listings, so we flag it as thin and keep it out of the rankings. Speed alone is misleading this month: Robertson is actually 6 days slower than a year ago even though it is the fastest county in the state this month, and its pending ratio fell 12 points year over year, which is why we weight absorption alongside speed rather than rank on raw days. Knox County (Knoxville) has the strongest absorption in the state at scale, with a pending ratio of 0.54.
Is the Nashville market slowing down?
Davidson County's pending ratio is 0.26 as of September 2026 — weak, but no longer the second-worst in the state. Jefferson (0.25) and Cumberland (0.25) both now sit below it; only Sevier (0.20) is lower among all four. Median days on market rose 2 year over year to 68. Nashville is still liquid in absolute terms — 4,621 active listings, the most in the state — but each individual listing turns over more slowly than in most of Tennessee, and building permits fell 63% from 2022 to 2025, the sharpest construction pullback in the state.
Does a falling median listing price mean home values are falling?
No, and this is the single most misread number in every market report. Median listing price moves when the mix of what is for sale changes, not only when values change. Shelby County remains the clearest case: asking prices down 12.6% year over year against an FHFA transaction index — built from actual repeat sales rather than listings — that is essentially flat. Jefferson shows the opposite distortion: asking prices up 11.2% year over year, continuing the gap flagged in the August report, most likely a mix effect in the other direction. Cheaper or pricier houses being listed is not the same as values falling or rising.
What is the best market in Tennessee for a fix and flip right now?
On the September 2026 data, Loudon County (Lenoir City) has the best combination in the state: days on market improved 10 year over year to 63, and the pending ratio improved 7.9 points to 0.47 — one of the only counties where both speed and absorption moved the right way together. Knox County offers the same pattern at far larger scale, with the state's best absorption at 0.54 on 1,924 active listings, though cooling from last year's 0.58. Coffee County is the only other county improving on both measures at once. Robertson County is nominally the fastest at 51 days, but its absorption fell 12 points year over year, so we do not treat raw speed alone as a buy signal this month.
Which Tennessee markets have the slowest exits?
Sevier County (Sevierville) is slowest at 95 median days on market with a pending ratio of 0.20, the weakest in the state on both counts, essentially unchanged from a year ago. Cumberland (Crossville) is next at 87 days, up 2 since August, with inventory up 10.0% year over year. McMinn (Athens) posted the sharpest one-month deterioration anywhere in the state, jumping from 71 to 79 days since August. Jefferson (Dandridge) looks faster on days alone (70, improving) but its pending ratio fell 15.4 points year over year, the largest absorption decline in Tennessee, on the back of an 11.0% one-month inventory jump — the single largest supply increase in the state this month.
Where does this data come from?
Two sources. Listing metrics — days on market, active listing count, pending ratio, median listing price, and price per square foot — come from Realtor.com Housing Inventory Core Metrics via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, all September 2026 on an identical vintage. The transaction-based price index is the FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index, also via FRED, annual through 2025 and unchanged since the August report. Building permits are Census data via FRED, annual through 2025, also unchanged. Median household income is Census SAIPE, annual through 2024. Nothing is estimated; the nine Tennessee counties with no published series are named as unavailable rather than filled in.
Does Scale Private Capital lend in all of these counties?
We lend across Tennessee on business-purpose real estate — fix and flip, land, new construction, and manufactured housing. We are not limited to the counties in this table. The table exists to help you decide where to buy and how long to underwrite the hold. If you have a property under contract anywhere in Tennessee, call us and we will underwrite it on the deal, not the county.
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